Can China beat the US in the 2nd Space race to the Moon?

The Moon, a celestial body last visited by humans during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, is once again at the forefront of a new space race. Both the United States and China have outlined ambitious plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface and establish permanent bases, signaling a new era of lunar competition. In recent years China has shown rapid progress in robotic exploration of the Moon, including its far side, but can China actually surpass the US in returning humans to the Moon and establishing a continuous human presence there?

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Plans and Timeline

China's lunar ambitions are encapsulated in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, also known as the Chang'e program, named after the mythical moon goddess. This program has currently progressed through several phases, with the future phases focusing on manned missions and base construction:

• Phase 1: Orbiting (2007-2010): Chang'e 1 and 2 successfully orbited the Moon, mapping its surface and testing technologies, laying the groundwork for subsequent missions.
• Phase 2: Robotic landing (2013-2019): Chang'e 3 (2013) and Chang'e 4 (2019) achieved soft landings, with Chang'e 4 notably landing on the far side of the Moon, a first in space exploration history.
• Phase 3: Sample return (2020-2024): Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024) returned lunar samples, with Chang'e 6 being the first to collect from the far side, enhancing understanding of lunar composition.
• Phase 4: Robotic research station (2026-2028): The goal of Phase 4 is the development of an autonomous lunar research station near the Moon's south pole. Chang’e 7 (2026) will survey the south pole for water-ice and test in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Chang’e 8 (2028) will demonstrate advanced technologies including 3D-printed structures and ISRU methods critical for a future habitat.
• Phase 5: Manned landing (2029-2030): China's National Space Administration (CNSA) aims to land its first two-person crew on the lunar surface by 2030 (in some recent presentations even 2029), using a Lanyue lander and a Mengzhou re-entry capsule launched by heavy-lift Long March 10 rockets from Hainan’s Wenchang site. Large-scale tests of the lander and capsule systems are “on schedule,” though experts note China still trails NASA in overall crewed lunar infrastructure.
• Phase 6: International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) (2035): China aims to establish ILRS in the 2030s, initially as a robotic base, with plans to make it permanently habitable after 2035. The first phase of the lunar base is expected to be completed around 2035, with an extended model by 2050, located near the lunar south pole for access to water ice.

China's technological approach includes leveraging ISRU, such as 3D-printing bricks from lunar soil during the Chang'e 8 mission, which could reduce reliance on Earth-based supplies and enhance sustainability. Research suggests China is also exploring lava tubes as potential habitats, offering natural protection from radiation and micrometeorites.

Mars base model by Zuzanna Skąpska

A set of renders for a Mars base model created by Polish 3D artist Zuzanna Skąpska for Mission to Mars AR app, an interactive augmented reality experience allowing users to drive a rover, launch a rocket, and explore the Red Planet. The app was created by Immersion Labs for Smithsonian Institution and with collaboration with NASA.

The Mars base model presents a modular and expandable habitat system intended for human settlement on Mars. It comprises multiple interconnected cylindrical modules, each serving distinct functions such as living quarters, research labs, or storage. The central module, marked with "MARS 2020" and an American flag, serves as the primary living area, equipped with communication equipment and access points for surface operations. Adjacent to this is a domed greenhouse structure, crucial for growing food and supporting human life in the base. The design incorporates protective features against Mars' harsh conditions, including radiation shielding, and allows for future expansion as the base grows.

New design for SpaceX Lunar Starship

During the livestream of Starship Flight test 6 SpaceX presented a new design for the Lunar Starship (Human Landing System) which NASA has selected for the Artemis missions returning humans to the surface of the Moon. According to the current schedule SpaceX is tasked to get Artemis III crew on the surface of the Moon in the end of 2026; we estimate this mission will slip for about two years – to 2028 because developing a human-rated spacecraft is a lot harder task than building "just" a cargo rocket.

An upgraded Lunar Starship for later Artemis missions:

NASA has revealed new designs of lunar cargo landers from SpaceX & Blue Origin

As we know NASA has contracted SpaceX and Blue Origin to provide landing systems to take astronauts to the Moon’s surface from lunar orbit, beginning with SpaceX's Lunar Starship for Artemis III mission.

On April 19, 2024, NASA announced it has asked SpaceX and Blue Origin to develop cargo versions of their human lunar landers as an option under their existing contracts. These cargo variants are expected to land approximately 12 to 15 metric tons (26,000 to 33,000 pounds) of payload on the lunar surface and be in service no earlier than the Artemis VII mission. In the announcement NASA shared the latest official renders of lunar cargo landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin:

SpaceX's Lunar cargo Starship

Blue Origin's Lunar cargo Lander

Jamestown US Moon base in "For All Mankind" season 3

Unlike the first two seasons, which focused on the Moon, season 3 of For All Mankind (an alternate history sci-fi TV series) focuses on Mars. But despite the Jamestown US Moon base being featured only briefly in the season, we can see it has been expanded significantly during the alternate history decade between season 2 (depicting 1983) and season 3 (depicting 1992 to 1995), completing the 1st ring of modules and adding a 2nd ring. So, in this alternate reality of the show development on the Moon has not been neglected because of the Mars mission.

NASA's Sojourner at Jamestown preparing for the mission to Mars:

Valles Marineris compared to USA

Valles Marineris (or Mariner Valleys) canyon system on Mars is one of the largest canyons of the Solar System. It is located along the equator of Mars and stretches for nearly a quarter of the planet's circumference. Valles Marineris is more than 4000 km (2500 mi) long, 200 km (120 mi) wide and up to 7 km (23,000 ft) deep.

Here is an infographic created by NASA comparing Valles Marineris to the territory of Contiguous United States (48 US states without Alaska and Hawaii) for scale:

Artemis rockets (SLS & Starship) that will get us to the Moon - infographic by Tony Bela

Australian space illustrator Tony Bela has created an infographic of Artemis rockets – NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), boosting Orion crew capsule to lunar orbit, and SpaceX's Human Landing System (known as Lunar Starship) – that will get the humanity back to the surface of the Moon.

You can download the infographic in its original resolution here.

"For All Mankind" season 3 brings space race to Mars

Soviets and US are joined by a private company Helios for a three way race to Mars in the alternate 1990s of For All Mankind season 3. The alternate history sci-fi TV series are exploring the idea of never ending space race if Soviets would have beaten US in the race for the Moon. In first two seasons of the show the focus was the Moon: in season 1, depicting alternate 1969 to 1974, both Soviets and US start building their separate bases near the lunar South pole; in season 2, depicting the alternate 1983, both bases have been expanded and the superpowers compete for resources on the Lunar surface.

The intention of the show is each season to jump about a decade further into the increasingly diverging reality of the show. Season 3 depicts alternate 1992 to 1995 when a race to establish first human base on Mars is facing various dangers for all of the participants. Here is a large collection of HD images from season 3 of the show. First part of the collection contains images with only minor spoilers, not revealing major story plots besides those already known from season 3 trailer.

The actual race starts with Helio's Phoenix launching from low Earth orbit, NASA's Sojourner from the Moon and Soviet Mars-94 directly from Earth:

3 way race to Mars in season 3 of "For All Mankind" alternate history TV series

For All Mankind is an alternate history sci-fi TV series exploring the idea of never ending space race if Soviets would have beaten US in the race for the Moon. In first two seasons of the show the focus was the Moon: in season 1, depicting alternate 1969 to 1974, both Soviets and US start building their separate bases near the lunar South pole; in season 2, depicting the alternate 1983, both bases have been expanded and the superpowers compete for resources on the Lunar surface.

As hinted in the final scene of season 2 Mars will be the central stage in season 3 of the show. Recently released season 3 trailer shows that the Soviets and US are joined by a private company Helios for a three way race to Mars in 1995. Here you can watch the trailer and see some screenshots from it. The season 3 will start airing in June 10 on Apple TV+.

Helios' Mars mobile habitat:

3 rivals racing for Mars in season 3 of For All Mankind TV series:

NASA's spaceship arriving to Mars:

SpaceX Starship next to SLS rolling out of NASA's VAB by James Vaughan

Picture of the Day 25/11/2021 - SpaceX's full stack Starship Super Heavy rolling out of NASA's Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) next to Space Launch System (SLS) rocket at Kennedy Space Center by American photographer and concept artist James Vaughan. More of his aerospace and defense concept art here.

SpaceX Lunar Starship delivering cargo for Artemis Base Camp

SpaceX's Lunar Starship, selected to return humans to the Moon, delivering cargo and crew for NASA's Artemis Base Camp on the Moon's South Pole. Concept artwork created by US 3D artist Nick Henning.

Lunar scenes in season 2 of "For All Mankind" alternate history TV series

Season 2 really kicked up the space race on Lunar surface in For All Mankind alternate history sci-fi TV series exploring the idea of never ending space race if Soviets would have beaten US in the race for the Moon. In season 1, depicting the events in alternate 1969 to 1974, both Soviets and US start building their separate bases at the rim of Shackleton Crater near the lunar South pole. In season 2, depicting the alternate 1983, both bases have been expanded and the superpowers compete for resources on the Lunar surface. The Cold War is very close to becoming a hot one.

The intention of the show is to jump about a decade further into the increasingly diverging reality of the show each season. The final scene of season 2 hints Mars will be the central stage in season 3. We are eagerly waiting to see how the authors of the show will have imagined humanity's journey to Mars in their alternate reality. The filming of season 3 has already started.

Jamestown US Moon base in 1983:

US mining site at Jamestown base:

Overview of the Jamestown base:

One of Jamestown's landing pads:

NASA selects SpaceX Lunar Starship to return humans to the Moon

Today NASA announced it has selected SpaceX "to continue development of the first commercial human lander that will safely carry the next two American astronauts to the lunar surface" as part of the Artemis program. A year ago it was announced three contenders were selected to compete for this mission - SpaceX, Blue Origin's led "National Team" and Dynetics - and SpaceX revealed it is working for a lunar optimized Starship. Now we know SpaceX's proposal has won the race. In a milestone-based fixed-price contract SpaceX will be able to receive $2.89 billion to develop the Lunar Starship. The year when SpaceX needs to land humans back to the Moon is not specified yet.

In addition to today's announcement, NASA shared latest official render of SpaceX's Lunar Starship which slightly differs from last year's version:

Jamestown US Moon base in season 1 of "For All Mankind" TV series

For All Mankind is alternate history sci-fi TV series depicting what could have happened if the space race had never ended after the Soviet Union succeeds in the first crewed Moon landing ahead of the United States in 1969. The authors of the show speculate such an event would force US to double down on space exploration altering the Apollo program from "flags and footprints" approach to a more ambitious one with extensive infrastructure buildup on the Moon (with hints of Mars exploration in later seasons of the show). Pouring money and resources into space exploration creates an atmosphere every space nerd would have wanted to continue after the enthusiastic 1960s.

Season 1 of the series (aired in 2019) depicts events from 1969 to 1974 in the alternate timeline of For All Mankind. The series are in the middle of season 2 now depicting the alternate 1983. It was said each season of the show will jump about a decade further into the increasingly diverging reality of the show. We will feature season 2 here after it will be aired completely. So here is a collection of HD images from season 1 with a focus on US Jamestown lunar base at the rim of Shackleton Crater near the lunar South pole where water ice is discovered in 1970 (several decades earlier than in reality):

Landing of the initial Jamestown lunar base module in October 1973:

Jamestown Phase 1 US lunar base in 1974:

SpaceX has downselected 7 potential Mars landing sites for Starship

On September 2019 it was revealed SpaceX has selected several Starship candidate landing sites on Mars. The candidate sites were located in Southern Arcadia Planitia East of Erebus Montes and one in Phlegra Montes.

Since then SpaceX has conducted several workshops with the Mars science community to evaluate and narrow the list of candidate landing sites. All the sites must fit several criteria:

1. close to significant deposits of water/ice, a required resource for in situ propellant production and a consumable to support habitation;
2. elevation below -2 km (with respect to the MOLA geoid) that can support the delivery of large payloads, with -3 km preferred;
3. latitude must be <40° for solar power and thermal management, and closer to the equator is desirable;
4. multiple separate landing locations spaced within a few km of each other, to support the multiple missions needed to grow an outpost;
5. slopes should be <5° over a 10 m length scale and the chance of impacting a rock greater than 0.5 m high (1 m diameter) should be <5%;
6. landing site must be radar reflective to enable measurement of the distance to the surface, and it must be load bearing to support the spacecraft at touchdown.

Recently an abstract with the conclusions has been published (the results of the study will be presented in two weeks, at the 52nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference), pointing out 4 prime and 3 secondary potential Starship landing sites selected for further study and located in Phlegra Montes, Erebus Montes and Southern Arcadia Planitia:

• PM-1 has the lowest latitude and elevation of the Phlegra Montes sites, a clear association with LDAs (local ice deposits expressed as lobate debris aprons), well developed polygons (one of the indicators of ice-related morphologies), and has the highest SWIM (Subsurface Water Ice Mapping) score for geomorphic indicators of ice;
• AP-1 (Arcadia Planitia) appears to be one of the safest sites and has a moderate combined SWIM score for ice;
• AP-9 has the thickest ice from radar returns (of the Arcadia Planitia sites) and geomorphology indicating shallow ice. It has the highest combined SWIM score for ice, but appears slightly rocky and rough;
• EM-16 has a clear association with an LDA with nearby brain terrain and the strongest radar return for shallow ice and the highest combined SWIM score of the Erebus Montes sites;
• AP-8 (Arcadia Planitia) appears to be one of the safest sites and has the highest neutron and combined SWIM scores for ice;
• EM-15 (Erebus Montes) is associated with a prominent but less extensive LDA, has well developed polygons, nearby brain terrain and appears smooth;
• PM-7 is adjacent to lineated valley fill (attributed to glacial flow) and appears to be the safest of the Phlegra sites.

We highlighted selected ★ prime and ★ secondary sites on the map:

Landing site of Perseverance Mars 2020 rover

On February 18th NASA successfully landed its Mars 2020 Perseverance rover on Mars in Jezero Crater (Western Isidis Planitia). As you may wonder where it is, we placed Perseverance's landing location on the map of Mars by National Geographic Society:

Open link in new tab to view the map in full resolution.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has created an animated flyover of the Martian surface explaining why Jezero Crater, a 28-mile-wide ancient lake-delta system, is the best place for Perseverance to find and collect promising samples for a possible future return to Earth. The animation also reveals the route Perseverance will travel in the first years after landing:

NASA Mars 2020 Perseverance rover landing in infographics

Tomorrow, on February 18, NASA will land its Mars 2020 Perseverance rover on Mars in Jezero Crater (Western Isidis Planitia). Its mission is to collect samples for later retrieval and it is accompanied by a small reconnaissance drone-helicopter Ingenuity - the first such craft on Mars. We will be able to watch NASA's broadcast of the landing here (starting on 19:15 UTC).

Here is an excellent infographic of Perseverance's landing sequence by Australian space illustrator Tony Bela:

Open link in new tab to view the infographic in its original resolution.

SpaceX Starship at NASA Artemis Base Camp by ICON

NASA has announced it is working with Texas-based 3D printed construction startup ICON "on early research and development of a space-based construction system that could support future exploration of the Moon and Mars. The company has 3D printed communities of homes and structures on Earth and participated in NASA’s 3D-Printed Habitat Challenge, demonstrating a construction method and technologies that may be adaptable for applications beyond our home planet." Both NASA and US Air Force have invested in company's technologies via Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract.

NASA is working, via its Artemis program, to establish a long-term human presence on and around the Moon by the end of the 2020s. Construction and expansion of Artemis Base Camp will require extensive use of lunar resources, including water ice (for life support and rocket fuel) and moon dirt (for building materials).

To accomplish goals of the SBIR contract ICON has teamed up with space design studio SEArch+ and Danish architecture firm BIG in Project Olympus to develop robotic construction concept for NASA's Artemis Base Camp. Here are several conceptual illustrations from the project.

First one depicts a spaceport featuring several 3D printed landing pads and roads, SpaceX's Starship in one of the pads and Blue Origin's Lunar lander with ICON's 3D printer landing in another:

Closeup of illustration's central part:

Here are illustrations of 3D printed habitats:

NASA Mars 2020 Perseverance rover launch

Today, July 30, at 7:50 AM (EDT) NASA will launch its next generation Mars 2020 Perseverance rover to Mars. The rover will land on Mars on February 18, 2021 in Jezero Crater (Western Isidis Planitia) to collect samples for later retrieval; the rover will be accompanied by a small reconnaissance drone-helicopter Ingenuity.

Here you can watch NASA's livestream of the launch:

The Perseverance is a twin rover of the Curiosity rover (working on Mars since 2012) with some upgrades:

Overview of the Perseverance scientific instruments:

Cutaway diagram of SpaceX Lunar Starship

Unofficial cutaway diagram of SpaceX's Lunar Starship interior by Rocket Posters. The Lunar Starship is lunar optimized version (for NASA's Artemis program) of the fully reusable super heavy-lift spacecraft - Starship - currently developed by leading NewSpace company SpaceX.