Mars Colonization Timeline

Mars Colonization Timeline
Inspired from and the Integrated Space Plan we have created a speculated timeline of human exploration and colonization of Mars. Predictions are based on a reasonably optimistic evaluation of technological and social progress of humanity. Only the most important and innovative events are mentioned. The timeline, first published on October 2016, is regularly updated taking into account the latest developments. Last update was made on 1st June, 2024.

Go to: 2020s2030s2040s2050s2060s2070s2080s2090s22nd century

2010s – The Mars hype is there

2016 – Elon Musk reveals SpaceX's first designs for a rocket (eventually to be called Starship) for Mars colonization.
2016 – ESA&Roscosmos's ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter enters Mars orbit, but Schiaparelli lander crashes on the surface of Mars.
2018 – NASA's InSight lander lands on Mars at Elysium Planitia.
2019 – First test hops of SpaceX's Starship test vehicle, the Starhopper, at Boca Chica, Texas. SpaceX starts to build full scale Starship prototypes.

2020s – Preparing for human arrival

SpaceX Mars Colonization Timeline - 2020s - Preparing for human arrival

2021 – United Arab Emirates Hope probe enters Mars orbit.
2021 – NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance rover lands on Mars in Jezero Crater (Western Isidis Planitia) to collect samples for later retrieval. A small reconnaissance drone-helicopter Ingenuity accompanies the rover.
2021 – NASA selects SpaceX to develop and build first commercial human lunar lander for Artemis program. The lander – lunar optimized Starship, known as Lunar Starship – needs to be capable to land on the Moon and bring back at least 2 astronauts in mid-2020s.
2021 – First successful high altitude test flight and landing of SpaceX's prototype Starship.
2021 – First Chinese Mars mission Tianwen-1 with the lander and rover Zhurong landing at Utopia Planitia.
2023 – India's Chandrayaan-3 is the first to land at the lunar south pole region – the future area of first human bases on the Moon.
2024 – SpaceX's prototype Starship makes first successful orbital test flight and landing.
2025 – India's Mangalyaan 2 orbiter enters Mars orbit.
2025 – Japan's Martian Moons eXploration mission probe lands on Phobos to release a rover, collect a sample and return it to Earth in 2029.
2025 – Successfull demo of fuel transfer between two SpaceX's Starships in orbit.
2027 – SpaceX's first crew Starship successfully tested on orbital flight.
2027 – Core structure of international Lunar Gateway completed in Lunar orbit.
2027 – SpaceX's uncrewed demonstration Lunar Starship lands on the rim of the Shackleton Crater near the lunar South pole.
2027 – SpaceX's Starship deploys a communications relay satellite system between the orbits of Earth and Mars for broadband communications between the two planets, even during periods when the two planets are on different sides of the Sun.
2027Two demonstration cargo Starships separately land on Mars at the two most promising locations for the first human base on Mars; both ships have a small nuclear power reactor and an automatic atmospheric propellant plant to produce oxygen and methane from Martian atmosphere.
2028Humans return to the Moon as SpaceX's Lunar Starship lands on the rim of the Shackleton Crater as part of NASA's Artemis program. First woman on the Moon. The main goal of the week-long mission is to explore the polar region and sample for water ice.
2028 – After the ground tests are done in both places the final location of future "Mars Base Alpha" is selected. Filled with local propellant the one Starship not on the selected location launches from Mars and successfully lands back on Earth the next year.
2029 – Two unmanned Starships land at the selected location of Mars Base Alpha: a backup crew ship (which has tested the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on the way) and a cargo ship with rovers, miner/tunneling droids and solar panels for the first human mission.
2029 – ESA's ExoMars rover Rosalind Franklin lands on Mars at Oxia Planum.
2029 – Chinese sample return mission Tianwen-3 lander and rover lands on Mars to collect samples and deliver them back to Earth in 2031.
2029 – NASA&ESA's Earth Return Orbiter and Sample Retrieval Lander with Mars Ascent Vehicle and two Ingenuity-class sample recovery helicopters have reached Mars to retrieve samples collected by Mars 2020 Perseverance rover and deliver them back to Earth in 2033.

2030s – First human base on Mars

SpaceX Mars Colonization Timeline - 2030s - First human base on Mars

2030 – Several Lunar Starships land on the rim of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the MoonArtemis Base Camp. For the time being it's only temporary inhabited.
2030 – Several landing fields cleared and prepared robotically at Mars Base Alpha location for the human mission next year.
2031 – On a mission supported by NASA two SpaceX's crew Starships with 12 astronauts each land at Mars Base Alphafirst humans on Mars. The crewed ships (serving as temporary habitats) are accompanied with a few cargo ships, including one with machinery for a ground-based In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system.
2031 – Two constellations of Starlink satellites with 1) global positioning system (GPS) in Medium Mars Orbit and 2) global communications system in Low Mars Orbit are deployed around Mars. Now it's hard to get lost on Mars; possibly only in a lava tube or a narrow canyon.
2031 – Solar array is built at Mars Base Alpha to supplement the energy generated by nuclear reactor on-board the first cargo Starship.
2032Artemis Base Camp on the Moon permanently inhabited.
2032 – After the best location is confirmed mining of water ice starts near the Mars Base Alpha. Ground-based ISRU system with atmosphere separator and chemical/propellant plant capable to produce and store water, nitrogen, argon and liquid methane and oxygen is assembled.
2032 – Several landing/launch pads for future Starship missions are built a few miles from Mars Base Alpha.
2033 – 2nd crew of 30 astronauts and workers aboard a Starship lands at Mars Base Alpha. The first modular ground habitat and a hydroponic greenhouse is built to provide Mars Base Alpha with locally grown vegan food. "The Mars Society" establishes its first chapter on Mars :)
2033 – NASA's research Mars Surface Field Station is established at Mars Base Alpha.
2034 – Martian regolith extraction, chemical separation and storage equipment is assembled; the useful elements now can be used in the greenhouse and ISRU system.
2034 – Several space agencies join NASA in financing the scientific operations at Mars Base Alpha and transport of their scientists between Earth and Mars.
2035 – Some of the landed cargo Starships and one crew Starship with a small crew and some returning scientists launch back to Earth.
2035First fully occupied Starship with 50 scientists, workers and colonists lands at Mars Base Alpha.
2035 – NASA's Mars Surface Field Station is reorganized into an international scientific research base with scientist crews rotating every Earth-Mars synod (26 months).
2036 – There are now two human bases near the lunar South pole as China with its international partners establish a separate lunar baseInternational Lunar Research Station – at Amundsen crater about 100 miles from Artemis Base Camp.
2036 – The ISRU capabilities of Mars Base Alpha are extended not only to produce air, water and methalox fuel, but also steel, bricks, cement, basic fertilizers, plastics and silica products (as glass panels). Some industrial size 3D printers are also assembled.
2036 – First large-scale orbital fuel depot for hydrolox and methalox rocket engines completed at Low Earth orbit. The hydrogen and oxygen is provided from the Moon and Near Earth asteroids; the methane – from Earth.
2037Starships with 100 human colonists and workers land at Mars Base Alpha, which now has a population of around 170. Cargo Starships bring in heavy duty construction and tunneling equipment.
2038Cyanobacteria are introduced into the ISRU processes of Mars Base Alpha.
2038 – A fish farm is built at Mars Base Alpha to provide more diverse local food for the colonists. The greenhouse is vastly expanded.
2039 – A transparent, radiation-filtering geodesic dome with garden is built at Mars Base Alpha; work begins to build a new underground section with larger habitats and working areas to boost the population capacity of the base to 1000.
2039First child is born on Mars at Mars Base Alpha. His/her voyage to Earth later in his/her life would be dangerous because of bones and organs not being fit for Earth's gravity.

2040s – Mars gets its orbital space station

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2040s - Mars gets its orbital space station

2040Starships with 200 human colonists, workers and individual wealthy tourists land at Mars Base Alpha.
2040 – The new underground section of Mars Base Alpha is finished. Now the colonists have a lot spacious living and working quarters with full radiation protection.
2041Cultured meat "farm" is built at Mars Base Alpha, adding meat (although artificial) to the diet of the colonists.
2041 – Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Mars Base Alpha.
2041 – First school opened at Mars Base Alpha. Now it is allowed for children to travel to Mars along with their parents.
2042Starships with 300 passengers land at Mars Base Alpha, which now has a population of around 600.
2042 – On behalf of several space agencies and asteroid mining companies Blue Origin's manned spaceship reaches Mars orbit near Phobos with first modules for Free Spaceport of Phobos project which will be a space station with several spinning sections with Mars-level artificial gravity of 0.38g and serve as a way station and fuel&repairs depot for manned and unmanned spaceships heading for Mars, Main asteroid belt and beyond.
2042First expedition to the summit of Olympus Mons – the tallest planetary mountain in the Solar System.
2042 – International human mission to Phobos and Deimos, operated by Blue Origin from Free Spaceport of Phobos construction place.
2043 – Several small proxy bases for scientific, mining and other purposes are established within a few tens of miles from Mars Base Alpha.
2043 – First mass driver constructed on the Moon at Artemis Base Camp to launch harvested & processed oxygen and hydrogen for storage at Lunar Gateway and fuel depot at Low Earth orbit.
2044Starships with 300 passengers land at Mars Base Alpha.
2045 – Large deposit of minerals with high concentration of rare metals is discovered a few hundred miles from Mars Base Alpha. A research Mining Base Beta is established.
2045 – Robotic water ice mining station is built on Phobos to supply the water and propellant needs of nearby Free Spaceport of Phobos.
2045 – A land trip all around the Mars is completed for the 1st time.
2045 – The landing pads a few miles from Mars Base Alpha where crew and cargo Starships have landed and taken off for 16 years are transformed into a small spaceport with pressurized skybridges for both passengers and cargo. It includes several ports also for newly developed Heavy Starship – the next generation of Starship system with a core diameter of 18 meters, more spacious living quarters for up to 200 passengers and spin artificial gravity of 0.38g when in duo ship mode.
2046 – First two Heavy Starships with 400 passengers, including SpaceX founder Elon Musk, land at Mars Base Alpha. Cargo Heavy Starships bring parts for a nuclear fusion reactor.
2046 – With additional modules arriving and maintained by Blue Origin the international Free Spaceport of Phobos is now operational. Robotic asteroid mining in Main asteroid belt now can rapidly expand.
2046 – Blue Origin's lander lands on Mars for a scouting mission to confirm the best location for Blue Mars base.
2047 – A public transport route between Mars Base Alpha and Mining Base Beta is established.
2047 – A short hyperloop line from Mars Base Alpha to its spaceport is finished.
2048 – Two Heavy Starships with 400 passengers land at Mars Base Alpha and another one with 200 (mostly miners) at the Mining Base Beta. The population of the Mars Base Alpha now surpasses 1200 with 200 more colonists living at nearby proxy bases and 300 at Mining Base Beta.
2048 – Blue Origin's spaceship fleet with 100 workers arrives at Free Spaceport of Phobos; workers are shuttled down to establish the Blue Mars base about thousand miles from Mars Base Alpha.
2049 – A nuclear fusion power station is operational at Mars Base Alpha.
2049 – A new underground section of Mars Base Alpha is finished, boosting its population capacity to 3000.

2050s – When bases grow into colonies

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2050s - When bases grow into colonies

2050 – With increased electrical power the ISRU and industrial capabilities of Mars Base Alpha are greatly extended, using the resources harvested, refined & processed around Mars Base Alpha and nearby proxy bases. Solar panel assembly factory is the first factory on Mars manufacturing complex products.
2050Mars Base Alpha police force established taking over the policing function in the region from security guards hired by SpaceX.
2050 – Earth and Mars is the closest since the beginning of the colonization. The largest colonial fleet ever arrives at Mars with 1000 colonists landing at Mars Base Alpha, 200 at Mining Base Beta and 100 at Blue Mars base.
2051 – Mass driver at human base in Sea of Tranquility on the Moon constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for usage in fusion power plants.
2051 – With China focusing on the Moon, India is the first Asian superpower to establish its own base on Mars.
2052 – International human mission to Ceres (flying with a new generation nuclear fusion spaceship) stops at Free Spaceport of Phobos to resupply, drop some scientists at Mars Base Alpha and take additional crew members from Mars.
2053 – 1200 colonists land at Mars Base Alpha and Mining Base Beta and 150 at Blue Mars base. There are now more than 4000 humans permanently or temporarily living on the surface of Mars.
2053 – At an impact crater near the Mars Base Alpha work begins to build the first large-scale dome on Mars, covering the entire crater more than a mile across.
2054 – A deuterium separation facility becomes operational at Mars Base Alpha to supply the needs of nuclear fusion power plants and other applications.
2055 – As more colonists land at Mars Base Alpha it reaches its maximum population capacity. More habitats are built at the outskirts of Mars Base Alpha, at its proxy bases and Mining Base Beta to support the influx of colonists.
2055 – Several more Blue Origin's shuttles land at Blue Mars base, boosting its population to more than 500. Indian Mars colony now has more than 200.
2055 – Using its strong presence on the Moon in its favor, China establishes its own colony on Mars which now is being expanded fast.
2055 – A modest defense system is built consisting of ground tracking stations and satellites in orbit around Mars armed with missiles and lasers to destroy those incoming meteoroids whose trajectories pose a threat to human bases on Mars.
2056 – The rover repair depot at Mars Base Alpha is upgraded to a Tesla rover factory – Gigafactory Mars.
2056 – First public suborbital shuttle route between two Martian bases (Mars Base Alpha and Blue Mars base) is established.
2056 – The large-scale transparent, radiation-filtering, light-weight dome is finished and pressurized near Mars Base Alpha, covering an area of almost a square mile; workers move in now to construct the buildings and gardens (with such features as artificial waterfalls) below the dome. Mars Base Alpha, the new dome and several closest proxy bases are combined under the name "Mars City".
2057 – New generation of SpaceX's nuclear fusion powered spaceships arrive at Free Spaceport of Phobos; passengers are shuttled down to the spaceports of Mars City and Mining Base Beta. Starships and Heavy Starships are retired from SpaceX fleet after 35 years of successful service and sold to several interested countries and companies.
2058 – The interior infrastructure of Mars City's dome is finished, having a maximum population capacity of 20'000.
2058 – A hyperloop line and heavy cargo train tracks are built between the Mars City and the industrial complex at Mining Base Beta.
2059 – SpaceX's nuclear spaceships take more colonists to Mars City, bringing its population to more than 6000.
2059 – First Brazilian Heavy Starship lands at Mars City. One of nearby proxy bases is sold to Brazil and expanded with more living habitats.
2059United Arab Emirates establishes its first base on Mars – the New Dubai.

2060s – Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2060s - Nuclear fusion spaceships open up Mars

■  Mars City's population reaches the level you can't anymore made the decisions by corporate hierarchy or direct democracy only. First city council on Mars is elected.
■  First humans born on Mars travel to Earth using exoskeletons as body-support because of Earth's heavier gravity.
■  As Martian-born kids can't travel to Earth for their higher education easily, first university on Mars is opened at Mars City.
■  The expanded Free Spaceport of Phobos more and more serves as a space logistics hub not only for colonies on Mars but for mining activities in Main asteroid belt as well. Several more space-faring nations begin participating in the spaceport project.
■  Several more orbital space stations are completed around Mars for in-space manufacturing, tourism and other purposes.
■  Commercial companies from various nations open their branches and operations on Mars.
■  Tourism from Earth is expanding on Mars. Although the trip is still expensive and only the rich can afford it. Besides its high-tech cities and bases Mars can offer spectacular safari rides and if you are really wealthy you can hire some of the guides to take you to the caldera of Olympus Mons, depths of Valles Marineris or other exclusive locations.
■  A second large-scale dome on Mars is constructed at Blue Mars. A hyperloop line is built between Mars City and Blue Mars.
■  First measures to start the terraforming process of Mars are made, powdering Martian polar ice caps with black lichen to reduce their albedo and melt the ice and building small automatic halocarbon factories throughout Mars to produce and release super-greenhouse gases in Martian atmosphere.
■  Artificial magnetic field generator is placed at Sun-Mars Lagrangian point L1 to shield Mars from solar radiation with the generated magnetotail and help the terraformation process of the planet.
■  Free Spaceport of Phobos is the starting point for international human mission to Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■  Nuclear fusion powered spaceships (greatly reducing the travel time from Earth and widening the launch window) bring more colonists to Mars than ever before. In 2060s the human population on Mars explodes from around 11'000 to more than 50'000 with Mars City alone having 25'000.

2070s – Human outposts spreading past Mars

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2070s - Human outposts spreading past Mars

■  The Free Spaceport of Phobos is the main supply node for human outposts and missions to Ceres, asteroids in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■  Cyanobacteria and methanogens are spread in lower regions of Mars to further increase the terraformation process.
■  The old workhorse of human colonization of Mars – the Starship family spaceships are finally retired completely. The oldest of them are 50 years old now.
■  Mars City is expanded with two more domes of similar size and several smaller ones.
■  There are 5 cities with large-scale domes now on Mars. All of them are interlinked with hyperloop lines or suborbital shuttle routes.
■  Mars becomes the main supplier of food and fertilizers for human space outposts in Main asteroid belt and beyond, as Mars is the closest object to them with natural sunlight and gravity, water and minerals needed for growing crops relatively cheaply.
■  The Free Spaceport of Phobos is a starting point for international human mission to the moons of Saturn (Titan, Enceladus and other).
■  Now almost all of the space-faring nations are represented on Mars with a base, a city block or a corporate enterprise.
■  In 2070s the human population on Mars expands from 50'000 to 200'000 with the largest colony – Mars City – having 60'000. Four more cities have a population of more than 15'000.

2080s – Mars gets its self-government

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2080s - Mars gets its self-government

■  First Martian Council, consisting of proportionally drawn representatives from every Martian city and base, is assembled on the principle of self-government. The Council deals with the issues important for all of the Martians (as ongoing terraformation initiatives or building a space elevator) and acts as a representative of the Martian population in relations with the corporations and governments of Earth.
■  As space elevators first on the Moon and then on Earth become operational, the cost of launching any mass to Mars and elsewhere into space is slashed considerably, greatly speeding up the use of space resources and space colonization.
■  Almost all colonists have left the oldest sections of former Mars Base Alpha with its obsolete infrastructure; the area is declared now a national heritage site, preserving the 1st human base on Mars as it was in the late 2040s and acting as a tourist attraction.
■  Tourism from Earth is becoming more and more mainstream. Now even a middle-class people can afford a trip to Mars.
■  Despite criticism China builds the first prison on Mars. Soon other colonies are quietly sending there their criminals too.
■  More powerful halocarbon factories are set up throughout Mars. The bacterial and lichen coverage around Martian surface is further increased.
■  Connected base stations for downward and outward space elevators on Phobos are built; work begins to construct both space elevators. The downward elevator will cut short of the upper edge of Mars's atmosphere with a shuttle platform at its tip. The outward elevator will have several platforms at different points to catch and release payloads (including spaceships) to Earth's system, to Main asteroid belt and to Jupiter's system.
■  Because of the damage to the environment and cheaper energy and materials in space, heavy, polluting industry is increasingly moved from Earth to space and human colonies on other planetary bodies, including Mars.
■  Work begins to build a large shuttle port at the summit of the Martian volcano practically on the equator – Pavonis Mons – for shuttles heading to and coming from Phobos space elevator.
■  In 2080s the human population on Mars expands from 200'000 to 500'000 with the largest of the Martian cities – Mars City – surging past 150'000 inhabitants. Particularly large colonial fleet arrives on 2082 when Earth and Mars is the closest since 2003, only 55.9 million kilometers (34.7 million miles) apart.

2090s – The millionth Martian

Mars Colonization Timeline - 2090s - The millionth Martian

■  The Phobos space elevator system is finished, greatly speeding up the colonization of Mars, interplanetary trade and the growth of human outposts in Main asteroid belt and Galilean moons of Jupiter.
■  The shuttle port at the summit of Pavonis Mons quickly expands into one of the largest human colonies on Mars – Pavonis City, which is soon connected with other major Martian cities by hyperloop lines and suborbital shuttle routes.
■  Establishment of Pavonis City greatly expands tourism in some of the most spectacular Martian regions nearby – Tharsis Montes, Olympus Mons, Noctis Labyrinthus and Valles Marineris. Tourist bases and hotels are popping up there fast. One of the hyperloop lines runs through all the length of Valles Marineris.
■  In an anticipation of future air pressure and temperature increase, new human colonies are being set up mainly in the lower regions of Mars, particularly Hellas Planitia and Valles Marineris, where the results of terraformation activities will be felt first.
■  In 2090s the human population on Mars reaches 1 million. Finally Elon Musk's goal to put 1 million people on Mars is reached.

22nd century – Mars becomes independent

Mars Colonization Timeline - 22nd century - Mars becomes independent

■  Mars becomes practically self-sufficient, having to import only the most complex goods and intellectual property.
■  The self-sufficiency results in Mars becoming an independent nation-state. The Martian government has to buy up the non-Martian governmental assets located on Mars. All the Martian-born babies are granted automatic Martian citizenship, as well as all the colonists living on Mars for more than one Martian year, if they apply for it.
■  The Martian government issues Mars dollar as an official currency on Mars; it's completely cashless electronic currency.
■  As a technologically advanced frontier society Mars and orbital stations around it become the primary source of specialists and workers needed for human bases and missions further in Main asteroid belt and outer Solar system.
■  Heavy industry is completely banned on Earth.
■  Air pressure and temperature on Mars is increased to the level where there is flowing water on the surface and simple plants can be introduced into newly created biosphere of the planet.
■  As one of the lower regions on Mars close to the equator Valles Marineris is seeing the most benefits from terraformation activities and Phobos space elevator; cities and farming communities are spreading throughout the valleys and at the end of the 22nd century there are around 5 million people living in Valles Marineris making it the most populous urban area on Mars.
■  In the 22nd century the total human population on Mars increases 30-fold – to more than 30 million.
Mars Colonization Timeline - 2020sMars Colonization Timeline - 2030sMars Colonization Timeline - 2040sMars Colonization Timeline - 2050sMars Colonization Timeline - 2090s


  1. Happy to see you link to Len Weinstein's paper on a Phobos elevator. I also have some material:

    1. Your series of articles about the Phobos tethers is really great! Thanks for sharing!

    2. i did not know that mars bases are super amazing

  2. great minds think alike. there are many similarities in both, your timeline and my book, "Journals from Mars". Good job!!!

    1. Would be interesting to read. Where it can be attained?

  3. I want to go on mars please take me in your team.

  4. I would think that by the 22nd century, we would have terraformed mars outside of out dome things.

  5. wow i am from Iran hope to see and travel to mars one day its really amazing and, My biggest desire is to travel to Mars
    wish you the best

  6. Not a good timeline in my opinion.

  7. I really liked your article. Can I make a translation into another language? And post it on your website? If you please.

    1. You can, but the timeline is constantly changing. You can post it on your page but insert a link to this original.

  8. 30 million? Oh damn. I hope we wont over populate this planet too

    1. Mars, even though its smaller, has about the same surface area due to the lack of oceans, I doubt that they would overpopulate anytime soon ;)

  9. Hope nobody brings religion and mosquitoes to Mars.

  10. Sorry we are going to mars in 2024 not in 2030

  11. I am writing a masters degree thesis related to the projected population of space flight participants. Can you please provide sources for the data you gathered on the points "in the ______ the total population will be _____". I need these for my paper.

    1. We wouldn't recommend using those numbers on any academic paper as they are only our speculation. We made a spreadsheet table, calculating all the arrivals (and departed) on each Earth-Mars synod (26 months) via Starships (50 people for one), Heavy Starships (200 people for one) and other spaceships later on, but all of this is only our prediction on a reasonable colony growth, taking into account potential technological progress.

  12. impressive, but you seem not to have taken into account neuralink and nanofabrication advancements expect within 3 decades

  13. At the 2019 IAC Shotwell stated that aspirationally they want Starship to be in orbit within a year, and to be on the surface of the Moon before 2022...

    1. We know & we are constantly updating our speculations, especially seeing the rapid progress of Starship test program, but in general we are more conservative about the early exploration of the Moon and Mars. Human spaceflight is more difficult than SpaceX aspires, as we can see from the constant delays of Crew Dragon.

  14. This timeline is missing a step. Before we put boots on the ground we have to do a more thorough search for native martian life. We should build a human base on Phobos or Deimos for real time remote study. The only instruments that ever tested directly for martian life showed promising but ultimately inconclusive results. Science missions since haven't directly looked for life but looked for signs of past habitability. Finding life on Mars if it exist would be one of those discoveries that redefines humanity. Contamination from Earth could put that knowledge in jeopardy.

    1. Robotic science is painfully slow. The work Curiosity rover is doing in a year a human scientist on the ground could do in a few days. Planetary protection rules are unreasonably strict and are slowing down science. If we will have the means to transport hundreds of human explorers to Mars via Starship I don't think those rules will stay.

  15. What the game used on cut scene picture?

    1. What do you mean? None of the images used in timeline is from a game.

    2. Looking the game like as 2070s timeline. Just edit picture and I can not play it

    3. That image is from a book cover:
      There is actually a game with similar aesthetics - Surviving Mars

  16. Have you calculated the impact of terraforming on the axis of the planet?

  17. dés que fusée starship se pose sur MARS , il faut planter un maximum d'arbres de toutes sortes , pour commencer à créer une atmosphére sur mars


    1. Bonjour Jean Luc,

      Les arbres ne peuvent pas vraiment survivre à la surface de Mars, de plus ils consomment du CO2 pour leur croissance.
      Or sur Mars pour lancer une "terraformation" on à besoin de ce CO2 car c'est un gaz à effet de serre qui permet d'augmenter la température et par effet boule de neige de libérer plus de CO2.

      Hello Jean-Luc,

      Trees cannot really survive on the surface of Mars, moreover trees consume CO2 for their growth.
      On Mars to start a " terraformation" process you well need this CO2 as it is a greenhouse gas which would allow for an increase of temperatures and trigger a snowball effect to release more CO2.

    2. Obviously we wouldn't start planting trees outside the habitats right away.

  18. I'll never live to see 30 million people on Mars. fuck

  19. Well done but there is one thing you miss. In the temperate latitudes, highlands or Mars will be found at depths of between 500 and 1500 meters will be found sweet water aquifers... and life. Microbial chains of life are still thriving. These, when developed properly by the importation of various fresh water species from Earth, will help Mars to become self sufficient. I know this to be true. I'm not guessing. Kindly give the idea some thought.

  20. Great work. Very optimistic. We can colonize and terraform Mars but will probably take considerably longer timeframe.

  21. If the timeline is relatively the same with actuality(adding in a few slips also) there's a chance for at least 25,000 people on Mars and the moon by 2100. I wanna say 100,000 thousand but that's a whole another ball game, but it's definitely more realistic than 1 million by 2050, 100,000 by 2050 is much, much more plausible and even more realistic than 1 million. Still a great page, and I always come back and check this page every 2 weeks or so, soo keep up the beautiful work!

  22. What I believe is this. 100,000 people is possible for Mars by 2050 and 1 million by 2100 is possible as well, if technology increases as it has in the past 100 years we have no idea what our civilization could become. Lets get this done!

    1. What's speculated here is an exponential growth of human population on Mars. That's why we estimate "only" ~3000 by 2050 but 1 million by 2100. Colonization will start slowly with relatively "small" ships but will get steam in the 2nd half of this century.

  23. Such an exponential growth rate assumes that certain factors are present, such as unlimited resources and a lack of disease or other factors that would prevent a constant birth rate. Mars has some resources, but due to the challenging environment and our limited technologies, resources will not be unlimited. And undoubtedly, a long term settlement is going to encounter difficulties we haven’t yet seen or anticipated.
    Some essential resources will need to be delivered from Earth, especially during the early stages of colonization. This will create delays due to transport time and product availability on Earth. Our recent experience with the coronavirus demonstrates what can happen when governmental restrictions impact the economy and produce setback, delays and shortages.
    Likewise, accidents such as those during the Apollo and Space Shuttle programs will also create additional delays in getting resources to Mars.
    A factor that many people are overlooking is the economy. Given the increasing popularity of command economy in the United States and around the world, greater governmental restrictions and taxation are going to be having an even more profound effect on our ability to supplement a Mars colony.
    I expect that the allure of exploration and our dreams of colonizing the Solar System are going to be the most important factors that make this happen. But even with optimistic predictions, these factors will likely result in the lower end estimates of Mars’ population growth.

    1. 100% true. Of course, everyone has their dreams but there is also reality and the reality is, technology is what will decide on how fast the colony could grow. As anyone will state, the technological growth from 1900 - 1950 is insane. people born in 1890, would be 60 in 1950 and notice their life in every aspect has done a 360. So on the technological aspect of ships, Starship will get us to mars while the second and third generation of "starships" will expand the colony. If Elon and SpaceX is true to what they say, once the first gen of starships are ready, they will most likely have 10-15 year lifespan. Near the end of that lifespan is when they will start testing and building the second generation, I predict the second gen of starships to be designed and finished by 2033-35. Finished product by 2040-2045. Artificial gravity is important and I believe it will be added on both vehicles in some form.

      Now, onto the population of Mars, I believe human Mars have it right. By the time I'm 49 in 2050, I truly doubt we will have more than 5000 people living/working on Mars. I can see 1000, and even 2000, 3000 is a stretch but possible. Like they say, colonization will be slow until the resources and technologies are their to support a "baby boom" generation. Which will happened in the final quarter of this century.

      I hope to go to Mars one day, though I am stuck.
      Ever since I was a child I wanted to join the military (Marines or Air Force), though by my late teens to now(20 yrs), I haven't been wanting to anymore. Though I've always said if a "Space Force" was created, it would be used to help develop future astronauts, and I believe the U.S. Space Force could be that program down the line. Schooling is also needed, and considering I graduated high school at the start of the pandemic (lived in California) my college world was sort-of destroyed and I was annoyed because I couldn't see anyone or do anything outside a computer, which didn't help. So i took a break from it. Now I'm at the point where I want to focus on getting into the Space Program down the line but what line should I take?

      U.S. Space force + schooling

      Full time Schooling +possible internships into SpaceX.

      I'm stuck but I know i'll figure it out with some help and with me choosing the best decision for my self.

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  25. I think those prediction are very interesting and also it, motivates me to work on this project with all!

  26. Space Dock Trading may be very essential for orbiting Earth and Mars for the continuous flow of markets between worlds. Mars Alone cannot sustain itself in its early stages of colonization. To mitigate the negative effects in space, we need a Colossal Interplanetary ship that can carry 10,000 people dwarfing the SpaceX starship that acts like a cruise sea ship on Earth having enough commodities and entertainment facilities to wait for the 4-8 Months' travel to Mars. Starship alone has its huge disadvantage due to microgravity that can hinder the health of civilians going to the red planet. Centrifugal Wheel shape ships might be the best option for this.

    1. We don't need a ship that large, but artificial gravity would certainly help later on as space travel becomes more routine