Can China beat the US in the 2nd Space race to the Moon?

The Moon, a celestial body last visited by humans during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, is once again at the forefront of a new space race. Both the United States and China have outlined ambitious plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface and establish permanent bases, signaling a new era of lunar competition. In recent years China has shown rapid progress in robotic exploration of the Moon, including its far side, but can China actually surpass the US in returning humans to the Moon and establishing a continuous human presence there?

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Plans and Timeline

China's lunar ambitions are encapsulated in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, also known as the Chang'e program, named after the mythical moon goddess. This program has currently progressed through several phases, with the future phases focusing on manned missions and base construction:

• Phase 1: Orbiting (2007-2010): Chang'e 1 and 2 successfully orbited the Moon, mapping its surface and testing technologies, laying the groundwork for subsequent missions.
• Phase 2: Robotic landing (2013-2019): Chang'e 3 (2013) and Chang'e 4 (2019) achieved soft landings, with Chang'e 4 notably landing on the far side of the Moon, a first in space exploration history.
• Phase 3: Sample return (2020-2024): Chang'e 5 (2020) and Chang'e 6 (2024) returned lunar samples, with Chang'e 6 being the first to collect from the far side, enhancing understanding of lunar composition.
• Phase 4: Robotic research station (2026-2028): The goal of Phase 4 is the development of an autonomous lunar research station near the Moon's south pole. Chang’e 7 (2026) will survey the south pole for water-ice and test in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Chang’e 8 (2028) will demonstrate advanced technologies including 3D-printed structures and ISRU methods critical for a future habitat.
• Phase 5: Manned landing (2029-2030): China's National Space Administration (CNSA) aims to land its first two-person crew on the lunar surface by 2030 (in some recent presentations even 2029), using a Lanyue lander and a Mengzhou re-entry capsule launched by heavy-lift Long March 10 rockets from Hainan’s Wenchang site. Large-scale tests of the lander and capsule systems are “on schedule,” though experts note China still trails NASA in overall crewed lunar infrastructure.
• Phase 6: International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) (2035): China aims to establish ILRS in the 2030s, initially as a robotic base, with plans to make it permanently habitable after 2035. The first phase of the lunar base is expected to be completed around 2035, with an extended model by 2050, located near the lunar south pole for access to water ice.

China's technological approach includes leveraging ISRU, such as 3D-printing bricks from lunar soil during the Chang'e 8 mission, which could reduce reliance on Earth-based supplies and enhance sustainability. Research suggests China is also exploring lava tubes as potential habitats, offering natural protection from radiation and micrometeorites.

New design for SpaceX Lunar Starship

During the livestream of Starship Flight test 6 SpaceX presented a new design for the Lunar Starship (Human Landing System) which NASA has selected for the Artemis missions returning humans to the surface of the Moon. According to the current schedule SpaceX is tasked to get Artemis III crew on the surface of the Moon in the end of 2026; we estimate this mission will slip for about two years – to 2028 because developing a human-rated spacecraft is a lot harder task than building "just" a cargo rocket.

An upgraded Lunar Starship for later Artemis missions:

SpaceX Lunar Starship delivering cargo for Artemis Base Camp

SpaceX's Lunar Starship, selected to return humans to the Moon, delivering cargo and crew for NASA's Artemis Base Camp on the Moon's South Pole. Concept artwork created by US 3D artist Nick Henning.

SpaceX Starship at NASA Artemis Base Camp by ICON

NASA has announced it is working with Texas-based 3D printed construction startup ICON "on early research and development of a space-based construction system that could support future exploration of the Moon and Mars. The company has 3D printed communities of homes and structures on Earth and participated in NASA’s 3D-Printed Habitat Challenge, demonstrating a construction method and technologies that may be adaptable for applications beyond our home planet." Both NASA and US Air Force have invested in company's technologies via Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract.

NASA is working, via its Artemis program, to establish a long-term human presence on and around the Moon by the end of the 2020s. Construction and expansion of Artemis Base Camp will require extensive use of lunar resources, including water ice (for life support and rocket fuel) and moon dirt (for building materials).

To accomplish goals of the SBIR contract ICON has teamed up with space design studio SEArch+ and Danish architecture firm BIG in Project Olympus to develop robotic construction concept for NASA's Artemis Base Camp. Here are several conceptual illustrations from the project.

First one depicts a spaceport featuring several 3D printed landing pads and roads, SpaceX's Starship in one of the pads and Blue Origin's Lunar lander with ICON's 3D printer landing in another:

Closeup of illustration's central part:

Here are illustrations of 3D printed habitats: